OpenAI Insider Estimates 70 Percent Chance That AI Will Destroy or Catastrophically Harm Humanity

Getting Warner After former and current OpenAI employees released an open letter claiming they’re being silenced against raising safety issues, one of the letter’s signees made an even more terrifying prediction: that the odds AI will either destroy or catastrophically harm humankind are greater than a coin flip. In an interview with The New York Times, former OpenAI governance researcher Daniel Kokotajlo accused the company of ignoring the monumental risks posed by artificial general intelligence (AGI) because its decision-makers are so enthralled with its possibilities. “OpenAI is really excited about building AGI,” Kokotajlo said, “and they are recklessly racing to be the first there.” Kokotajlo’s spiciest claim to the newspaper, though, was that the chance AI will wreck humanity is around 70 percent — odds you wouldn’t accept for any major life event, but that OpenAI and its ilk are barreling ahead with anyway. MF Doom The term “p(doom),” which is AI-speak for the probability that AI will usher in doom for humankind, is the subject of constant controversy in the machine learning world. The 31-year-old Kokotajlo told the NYT that after he joined OpenAI in 2022 and was asked to forecast the technology’s progress, he became convinced not only that the industry would achieve AGI by the year 2027, but that there was a great probability that it would catastrophically harm or even destroy humanity. As noted in the open letter, Kokotajlo and his comrades — which includes former and current employees at Google DeepMind and Anthropic, as well as…OpenAI Insider Estimates 70 Percent Chance That AI Will Destroy or Catastrophically Harm Humanity

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